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Jabil's Global Category Intelligence Archive
Global Category Intelligence
Q4 2024
Jabil's Global Category Intelligence Archive
Global Category Intelligence
Q4 2024
Executive Summary
Q4 2024
The global economic outlook for Q4 presents significant challenges, shaped by critical factors influencing both the near and medium-term landscape. The upcoming 2024 US presidential election introduces heightened uncertainty in international trade relations, particularly for countries like China, Germany, and Mexico, with substantial trade exposure to the US. While US GDP growth for 2024 has been revised upward due to stronger-than-expected performance, a slowdown is anticipated in 2025. In response, the Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate cut since the pandemic, reflecting shifting market sentiment.
Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside rising tensions between the US and China, contributing to a complex and uncertain global environment. A shift toward industrial policies prioritizing resilience over efficiency is also expected to slow global growth and potentially fragment global value chains. Despite these headwinds, global GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, with the US expected to outperform, while Europe and China experience more moderate growth. India is also forecast to be the fastest-growing major economy from 2024 to 2028.
Inflationary pressures, driven by labor market tightening and supply chain disruptions, are expected to keep inflation above pre-pandemic levels. Central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to ease monetary policy, though fiscal expansion will be constrained by rising debt-servicing costs. Emerging markets will benefit from a recovery in global trade and strong commodity demand but will face challenges from high debt levels and climate-related risks.
Technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence, and the global transition to greener economies will likely benefit developed nations more than developing economies, widening global economic inequality. Although the risk of a global recession remains low, economic fragmentation and ongoing geopolitical tensions pose significant risks to global stability in the years ahead.
Our team of experts provides in-depth insights into these shifting market dynamics, including supply chain disruptions and the forces driving supply, demand, and pricing across a wide array of commodities.
I hope you enjoy this report. Please feel free to reach out directly with any questions.
Yours sincerely,
Heidi Banks
Global Indirect Procurement
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