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Jabil's Global Commodity Intelligence Archive
Global Commodity Intelligence
Q4 2023 | OCTOBER - DECEMBER
Jabil's Global Commodity Intelligence Archive
Global Commodity Intelligence
Q4 2023 | OCTOBER - DECEMBER
HIGH END SEMICONDUCTOR COMMODITIES
MCU / MCP / CHIPSET / ASIC/ PROG LOGIC
SUPPLY
- In general supply is healthy with high inventory in the supply chain and low book-to-bill ratios (below 1), due to continued softness in consumer and mobile markets demand.
- It’s expected that smartphone demand has bottomed out and consumer demand will slowly pick up again in the course of the next 2 quarters.
- Secular growth trends like electric vehicles, renewable energy, energy storage systems, connected health applications, and AI-related edge and cloud applications continue to drive semiconductor growth, but this is somewhat balanced out by significant inventory levels.
- Suppliers further improved lead times, whilst we still see continued bottlenecks in specific product families.
- Foundry: healthy for most technologies, still constrained in specific nodes.
- Substrate: healthy, some limited bottlenecks
- Back-End: healthy
- MCU: healthy for most product lines, long lead times remain for automotive product families.
- STMicroelectronics:
- Lead times improved to 14-22 weeks for mainstream MCUs (STM32F, L, U, MP series)
- Some higher-performance (H5/H7) are longer but reduced to 32 weeks.
- Automotive portfolio remains constrained for SPC products with lead times extended to 69 weeks.
- STMicroelectronics:
- Microchip: some relief on NCNR terms within the PSP program, backlog is reduced to 26 weeks.
- Lead times improved significantly, some are down to 4-12 weeks, but it’s difficult to manage the mix.
- Orders are booked against 26 weeks range within PSP
- NXP: implemented SVP 24 program for limited critical products with 6 months commitments for both the 1st and 2nd half of 2024.
- Most MCUs/MPUs improved to 20-26 weeks lead time.
- Kinetis (MK series) and S32K1 automotive series remain very constrained (52 weeks)
- TI: Healthy lead times for most products.
- Wireless (CC1xxx/CC2xxx/CC3xxx) are at 12-20 weeks, modules up to 26 weeks.
- MSP430 MCU is in a 12-20 week range, TM4C at 12-20 weeks
- DSP’s (TMS320) and Sitara MPU’s (AMxxx) are at 12-26 weeks
- Infineon/Cypress: lead times improved to 40 weeks range for the majority of the product lines
- Renesas: lead times remain healthy in an 18-36 week range
- Silicon Labs:
- Small lead time improvements for older generation EFR32/EFM32 product families.
- Supply for series 2 devices (EFx32xx2 ) is healthy at 20-26 weeks.
- SoC business: supply is relatively healthy, older nodes above 65nm remain somewhat constrained, especially for ethernet-related products. Supply for wireless SoC’s (WIFI/BT) is healthy.
- Marvell: lead time is 26 weeks for most products.
- Broadcom: lead times remain at 52 weeks, all products are on NCNR. Consumer products from BVG have a 26-week lead time on average.
- Qualcomm: lead times are in a 40-week range.
- Intel: supply for EPG products is healthy.
- Microchip: lead times improved, depending on the specific part number, this is in 16-52 weeks. It’s recommended to stick to PSP as the mix might change.
- FPGA: supply improved significantly in recent months.
- Xilinx: lead times are improved; NCNR is lifted, still asking for 1 year of visibility.
- Most products are in a 12-26-week range
- Artix family is up to 36w, Ultrascale/Ultrascale+ up to 52 weeks, depending on the specific product.
- Some extended lead times for specific packages – FGG484 / FGG676 due to substrate constraints.
- Xilinx: lead times are improved; NCNR is lifted, still asking for 1 year of visibility.
- Intel: lead times significantly improved for all product families, and allocation/NCNR has been lifted.
- Intel should be able to commit against 22-26 weeks lead time.
- Microchip: supply remains tight for some product families like SmartFusion 2, lead times are above 52 weeks.
- Lattice: indicating further improvements with the expectation of lead times below 24 weeks for all products by the end of CQ3 2023. Lattice is asking for 1 year of visibility.
- LC4xxx, M4A5, XO2, and XO3 are still somewhat constrained (48 weeks), expected to improve to 24 weeks by the end of Q3.
- CPUs: Intel supply is healthy in general.
- RF semiconductors: lead times are quite healthy in a range of 16-40 weeks, mobile market was very soft, looking to gain in the 2nd half of 2023, but overall, 2023 looks to be a flat year with almost no growth.
- Qorvo: lead times are stable, seeing moderate growth in 2023
- Skyworks is reducing lead times to 16 weeks in general
- Anaren is expecting slight growth in the second half of the year
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Infineon, NXP, and Bosch established a JV with TSMC to build a new 300mm fab in Dresden, Germany, focused on 28/22 and 16/12 nm nodes, mainly intended for advanced automotive products. It’s expected the production will start in 2027 with a planned investment of $10 billion USD, partially funded by the EU government.
- Infineon, NXP, Bosch, Nordic, and Qualcomm will jointly invest in a company advancing RISC-V IP adaptation.
- Intel terminated the acquisition of Tower Jazz after the deal failed to get approval from Chinese regulators. It somewhat impacts Intel’s foundry investment plans as Tower could offer a diverse portfolio in terms of technology and regional footprint.
- After the termination, both parties agreed in early September that Intel would provide foundry services and 300mm capacity to Tower. Tower will utilize Intel's advanced manufacturing facility in New Mexico and will invest up to $300M in equipment and other assets.
PRICE
- Pricing is expected to remain stable for Q4 2023.
- There might be some corrections going into 2024; TSMC is hinting at some reductions on wafer cost for newer generation technologies as well as some increases on older generation technologies.
- Suppliers continue to defocus on legacy devices with price increases and accelerated EOL.
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