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Jabil's Global Commodity Intelligence Archive

Q3 2022

SEMICONDUCTOR COMMODITIES

ANALOG POWER / SIGNAL CHAIN

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Analog Signal Chain

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Interface

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Converter

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Communication

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Multimedia

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Analog Power

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Amplifier

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Analog Switch

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Power Management

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

The semiconductor market continues to be extremely disruptive. The global chip crunch is forecast to extend into 2023 as lead times continue to stretch for many product families. The robust demand for chips is keeping most of the suppliers’ capacity fully utilized. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated digital transformation which has resulted in tremendous growth in the use of smart phones, notebooks, servers, automotive, smart home, gaming and wearables.

Most of the major automotive manufacturers have endured major supply chain disruptions for the past two years. The lack of semiconductor chips and other components, as well as the global pandemic, has led to production halts, delays and inventory shortages that have shaken the automotive market and their “lean inventory” strategies.

The recent disruptions of global supply chains are being exacerbated by the lockdowns in Shanghai which have only added to inflationary pressures and difficulties related to operations and logistics. Strict quarantine measures are disrupting road transport and suppliers have had to pause their production due to the closures and reduced work forces. Inter-city roads were closed which greatly reduced the amount of freight being transported by ground in the country. Transportation costs increased due to extended delivery times created by the restrictions.

To discourage double ordering, many suppliers are requiring customers to lock in long-term, non-cancelable orders.

Most of the CapEx investments made by the supply base won’t increase production volumes until the end of 2022 or later in 2023.
 

Texas Instruments (TI)

TI is still catching up with the robust demand that triggered the global chip crunch. Recent Covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai are impacting some of TI’s Assembly and Test subcontractors. As a result, these closures or reductions in the workforce have impacted the flow of products and services. Expect delays and slower logistics movements due to the quarantine measures and compliance with the governments' epidemic prevention and control. TI can support up to 78 weeks of rolling JIT forecast. It is vital to provide long-term forecast visibility in view of the current constraint market.

  • Critically constrained product families, especially on LBC5, 6, 7, 8, 9 wafer processes where lead times have stretched to 52 weeks or more. (MPNs: TLCxx, TLVxx. TPSxx, DRVxx ).
  • TI is also highly constrained at the backend and assembly facilities including major lead frame shortages.
  • Top constrained package: QFN.

Capacity Expansion: Investing in new capacity coming online in 2022 and 2023.

  • Backend Assembly:
    • Chengdu – 300,000 square feet (doubles existing CDAT A/T Capacity) – complete 2H 2021.
    • Melaka (TIEM2) new probe, bump and A/T facility -- factory construction to begin in 2H 2022.  

Front End Fab:

  • Richardson Fab 2 – 300,000 Square Feet (30% larger than RFAB1) – complete 2H 2022.
    • Will add $5B worth of advanced analog capacity.
    • 300-mm (LBC9 & LBC9PLV).
  • Lehi Fab – acquired from Micron supporting advanced Analog and Embedded Processing –planned for 2023.
    • 65-nm nodes (F65/C021).
  • Sherman Fab (Texas) –ready in 2025.
    • Size of 4 RFAB2.
    • 300-mm.

Monolithic Power Systems

  • MPS  lead times have increased to more than 50 weeks for both standard and automotive products.

Microchip

  • Microchip continue to address accelerating demand that outstrips supply. Lead times have extended to 60 weeks for standard products and 62 weeks for custom products.
  • Microchip announced a Preferred Supply Program (PSP) which is designed to deal with supply constraints for customers that participate. 

 

onsemi (recent rebrand from ON Semiconductor)

  • Market demand exceeds supply. onsemi is facing tight supply and backend constraints. Lead times continue to stretch significantly. They are strongly encouraging customers to extend orders and forecasts well into the 1H 2023.
  • Std Analog:  AC/DC , DC/DC , Interface (RS232, R485) , VR, LDO, Driver, Mixed Signal/Amplifiers and Comparators are all quoted at 50 weeks lead time.

STM

  • Lead times continue to stretch. The are requesting long term forecast and backlog coverage through 2023. STM OEM sales have been communicating the same (extended lead times) announcement to the respective end customers.
  • Power management, AC/DC, DC/AC, Mixed Signal Amplifier & Comparator, Std Analog VR, LDO, Drive all quoted to 84 weeks lead time. All automotive grade devices now reflecting 65 weeks lead time. All parts are under NCNR terms.

Maxim

  • Maxim is facing constraints on TQFN/TDFN packages from their assembly vendors.

Automotive-grade products are heavily constrained. On average, lead times are between 40 - 60 weeks. 

Renesas

  • Effective immediately, Renesas has implemented a new policy imposed for all parts (Renesas, ex-Intersil, ex-IDT and ex-Dialog). Customer request dates within the current quarter and the following quarter’s window will not be allowed to be pushed out or canceled, a 30% surcharge may apply. This policy will be imposed on all RFQs plus new and existing orders.
  • Backend assembly and test constraints in Malaysia due to resource limitations caused by local Covid regulations.
  • Lead time: 52 weeks

Diodes

  • Lead times are stretching due to tight capacity in both front-end and back-end production.
  • Lead time: 40 - 60 weeks.

ADI

  • ADI continues to experience unprecedented strong demand and face constraints at both front and back-end support processes.
  • Lead time: 50 - 90 weeks.

Foundry/OSAT Update

  • Less new investments on 8-inch capacity with focus on 12-inch capacity expansion for advanced nodes.
  • ADI response -$900M CapEx to expand internal 8-inch capacity. 12-inch strategic opportunities are under review.

Assembly Update

  • Significant CapEx by OSAT partners have increased capacity in assembly.
  • ADI Response: long term agreement with their OSAT partners. Co-investments made with lead frame and laminate suppliers.

 

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Analog Signal Chain

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Interface

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Converter

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Communication

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Multimedia

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Analog Power

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Amplifier

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Analog Switch

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Power Management

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Today’s unprecedented demand for semiconductors is driven by accelerating digital transformation. Wireless/5G, IoT, and automotive are the most important applications driving increased demand over the next few years.
  • Foundry providers, lead by TSMC (50% market share) will exhibit another strong year in 2022 driven by increasing demand for 5G phones, automotive and high-performance computing.
  • The launch of supportive government initiatives for the development of infrastructure for electric vehicles is further contributing to the growth of the analog IC market.
  • The industrial segment is estimated to grow steadily over the next few years.
  • TI has closed their MCU team in China and moved the MCU product line to India.
     

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Analog Signal Chain

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Interface

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Converter

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Communication

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Multimedia

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Analog Power

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Amplifier

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Analog Switch

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Power Management

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

As a direct impact from Covid-19, the semiconductor industry supply chain, including semiconductor wafers, foundry, and packaging, is facing a shortage of raw materials that is directly impacting production capacity. Several semiconductor manufacturers have been forced to raise their prices due to raw material cost increases and production premiums.

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine may further contribute to increased prices of semiconductors. Two key inputs of semiconductors include palladium and neon gas. 1) Russia provides approximately 40% of global palladium supply 2) Ukraine provides an estimated 70% of global neon supply. It is still unknown how the crisis will impact prices but there is undoubtedly another hike in semiconductor prices coming. There are plenty of rumors emanating from Taiwan on 2023 foundry contracts being increased by anywhere from 6% to 15% on top of previous increases.

Analog Devices: price increases on products from the combined ADI and Maxim portfolio. These price increases apply to both direct and distribution orders – 15~25% .

Renesas: increased by 10 - 20% for the former Intersil legacy products across all customers.

STM: price increases of 10~15%  for the 2H 2022 already delivered to many end customers.

onsemi: price increases 10~25% and defocus on legacy devices.

TI:  price increases of 10~15% pushed to the end customer.

MPS: price increases effective from February 2022 onwards.

Microchip:  price increases between 10 - 15%. 

Future price developments are directly linked to each supplier’s capacity status which requires continuous monitoring.

STANDARD LOGIC

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Logic

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Long, protracted supply constraints expected well into 2023.
  • Most factories running at 100% capacity with historically high book to bill ratios.
  • Booking rates continue to outpace production and wafer availability across the industry. 
  • Production output continues to increase each quarter and will continue to lag overall demand through all of 2022.
  • Capacity/utilization: current loading is very high. Most of the front and back-end lines are full through 2022.
  • Lead times increased further ranging between 42 - 70 weeks, depending on package type.
  • Lead times are extremely extended at Nexperia, and products remain on allocation.

 

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Logic

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Some of the largest suppliers have hinted that they will pass through additional price increases in line with new contracts from their foundry providers. The cost of chip manufacturing is steadily on the rise due to, among other factors, the increased cost of chemicals and other raw materials. Foundries like TSMC have already raised pricing this year and are expected to announce another round shortly. Manufacturers like Samsung and Intel are also expected to announce foundry services price increases. We expect to see another 5 - 10% jump before the end of the year.
  • The demand for semiconductors is driven by confluence of digital transformation, wireless/5G rollout, IoT, and automotive segments with no current drop of in demand into the end of the year.
  • Top chipmakers in Taiwan and South Korea are closely reviewing their stockpiles of critical industrial gases after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of supply disruption that could exacerbate a global chip shortage. Ukraine and Russia are important sources of noble gases and precious metals used in chipmaking. These include neon, argon, xenon and krypton from the former, and hexafluoro butadiene (C4F6) and palladium from the latter. Ukraine, for example, controls 70% of the world’s supply of neon gases. 
  • TI is investing in internal 300-mm manufacturing, production from their new Sherman fabs expected completion in 2025. The fabs will complement TI’s existing 300-mm fabs, which include DMOS6 (Dallas), RFAB1 and the soon-to-be-completed RFAB2 (both in Richardson, Texas), which is expected to start production later this year. Additionally, LFAB (Lehi, Utah) is expected to begin production in early 2023.
     

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Logic

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Some of the largest suppliers have hinted that they will pass through additional price increases in line with new contracts from their foundry providers. The cost of chip manufacturing is steadily on the rise due to, among other factors, the increased cost of chemicals and other raw materials. Foundries like TSMC have already raised pricing this year and are expected to announce another round shortly. Manufacturers like Samsung and Intel are also expected to announce foundry services price increases. We expect to see another 5 - 10% jump before the end of the year.
  • The demand for semiconductors is driven by confluence of digital transformation, wireless/5G rollout, IoT, and automotive segments with no current drop of in demand into the end of the year.
  • Top chipmakers in Taiwan and South Korea are closely reviewing their stockpiles of critical industrial gases after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of supply disruption that could exacerbate a global chip shortage. Ukraine and Russia are important sources of noble gases and precious metals used in chipmaking. These include neon, argon, xenon and krypton from the former, and hexafluoro butadiene (C4F6) and palladium from the latter. Ukraine, for example, controls 70% of the world’s supply of neon gases. 
  • TI is investing in internal 300-mm manufacturing, production from their new Sherman fabs expected completion in 2025. The fabs will complement TI’s existing 300-mm fabs, which include DMOS6 (Dallas), RFAB1 and the soon-to-be-completed RFAB2 (both in Richardson, Texas), which is expected to start production later this year. Additionally, LFAB (Lehi, Utah) is expected to begin production in early 2023.

DISCRETE

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Diode

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Transistor

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Global Manufacturing PMI continues to slow down to 51 in April despite the US and Europe PMI remain strong. This is due to China dragging down the Global PMI,  primary driven by their Covid-19 shutdowns and restrictions.
  • The automotive segment is still facing the worst situation due to continued increased demand and the semiconductor industry still unable to keep up with the expectations from the automotive market. This has been exacerbated  by a handful of manufacturers who are in Shanghai experiencing devastating prolonged lockdown period of more than 2 months. Tentatively, the Shanghai government is implementing gradual relieve of the lockdown.
  • STM, onsemi, Infineon, Vishay and Nexperia have their capacity fully booked for 2022 and filling fast for 2023.
  • The current mobile and consumer market slow down is providing some relief on smaller DFN package. However, the larger form factor such as DFN2020 (and larger) are still facing tight supply.


Average Lead Time Based on Technology 

General Diodes  30 - 50 weeks
Switching Diode   40 - 52 weeks 
Schottky Barrier Diode  30 - 52 weeks 
ESD & TVS  30 - 52 weeks 
Zener Diode   40 - 52 weeks 
BJT Transistor   40 - 52 weeks 
Low Voltage MOSFET  40 - 52 weeks 
High Voltage MOSFET  52 weeks 
SiC  39 - 52 weeks 

 

Infineon MOSFETs are still in allocation with lead times in excess of  52 weeks. With limited expansion in Dresden and the Kulim plant switching to 200mm to improve output, the capacity expansion is still not enough to reduce current planned lead time.

 

Onsemi backlog remains strong and the book to bill ratio has increased despite the extremely long lead times and price increases. As a positive, some long-term sales agreements with Onsemi have managed to identify and eliminate some double bookings and we have seen a small percentage of “super constraint parts” downgraded to “constraint part” status.

Capacity Expansion:

  • Front End:
    • Continuous investment in new capacity
    • Transition all production to multi source 200mm wafer
    • IGBT +20% on 200mm capacity growth
    • FET +15% on 200mm capacity growth
    • Partnership with external partner to establish a 300mm wafer fab.
       
  • Backend Assembly:
    • Expansion of 50K sq ft assembly and test capacity per year
    • Expansion of Power discrete and module multi-source capabilities

STM products are still experiencing severe allocation. However, a new process from STM management to extend the lead time to reflect more than 52 weeks in order to allow customer to book 2023 capacity should enable better planning and management of backlog by STM.

Progressive conversion to 200mm internal wafer fab in order to increase output.

Nexperia remains on allocation for all parts, with significant supply constraints on automotive-grade products.

Capacity Expansion: Increasing global front-end and back-end capacity.

  • Front End:
    • New 300mm (12 inch) wafer fab in Lingang (Shanghai). Investment by Wintech, ramping in 2022.
    • Wafer fab in Hamburg (Germany), Manchester and Newport (UK) – Ongoing conversion from 6 to 8 inch.
       
  • Backend Assembly:
    • Expanding in Dongguan (China) factory.Investing extra capacity in Cabuyao (Philippines) and Seremban (Malaysia).
    • Implementation of advanced automation.

 

Diodes Inc lead times continue to stretch due to tight capacity in both front end and back-end assembly.

  • Lead times from 52 – 60 weeks.
  • External fab partners’ utilization is more than 100%.
  • Capacity Expansion: year to year expansion of more than 20% for 150mm wafer capacity compared to 2021.

Vishay remains constrained in terms of supply for most products. The Shanghai lockdown caused significant issues for Vishay, holding them back by at least 6 weeks on an already constrained environment across numerous discrete products. Due to the impact of the lockdown, Vishay’s book-to-bill levels have increased to approximately 2:1.

Littelfuse fuses are typically seeing lead times of 45 weeks and on an increasing trend whereby the Mosfet and IGBT product lines are between 52 weeks and 62 weeks.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Diode

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Transistor

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • The following key discrete manufacturers have been directly impacted by the Shanghai lockdown - Diodes Inc, Vishay and Alpha & Omega.
  • The CapEx investment from multiple manufacturers is heavily targeting SiC (Silcon Carbide) technology. The global market value for SiC was $700M in 2020 and it is estimated to reach $4.5B in 2027 – an impressive CAGR of >30%.
  • In 2022, the demand for SIC is predominately driven by automotive, cloud computing’s SWPS, renewable energy inverters, and home products, especially air conditioners. With the significant CapEx investments, it is estimated by 2025 the cost of SiC will reduce significantly to enable a quicker transition from a typical silicon device to a competitive SiC device.
  • Due to prolonged allocation on MOSFETs from traditional tier-1 manufacturers, we are starting to see the tier-2 supply base make some share gains in the market.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Diode

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Transistor

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Following the prolonged war in Ukraine, disruption in supply has driven metal and petroleum to historical high pricing levels causing component costs to increase. Raw materials such as Nickel (80% increase in price) and petroleum-based chemicals are heavily used in electronic component manufacturing.
  • Tier-1 manufacturers are signaling another round of price adjustments however the timing remains undecided as many manufacturers are trying to limit the frequency of price adjustments.
  • For tier-2 suppliers, the pricing remains somewhat stable despite pressure due to increased manufacturing costs.
  • Legacy Diode and Transistor technology is increasing by 20% or more with many of those product ranges end-of-life (EOL) risks.

OPTOELECTRONICS

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Optoelectronics

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LED

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • The supply situation remains very constrained for Opto couplers, InfraRed (IR) devices and selected visible LED families including circuit board indicator (CBI), Display and through-hole lamps going into Q3 2022, driven mainly by an upsurge in semiconductor demand across all market sectors. Lead times are stretching out to beyond 20 weeks for Asian manufacturers, and up to 52 weeks for US and Japanese manufacturers. Customers are strongly advised to place longer term order coverage for critical and sole source items through to 1H 2023, to lock in capacity in order to prevent a supply interruption.
  •  More single source semi-customized LED manufacturers, such as VISUAL COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY (VCC), PANASONIC, NICHIA & DIALIGHT, were announcing EOL of their legacy products used in on-going production without adequate advanced notice, LTB notice or recommended replacement. Some Asia-based LED makers have also issued end-of-life on products using Cree die as Cree continues to de-commit deliveries. Customers are advised to work closely with us to qualify Jabil-preferred suppliers in order to mitigate supply risks.
  • Growth area for invisible LED sectors: IR receivers for consumer products like set top boxes and smart metering, couplers for DC power supply, data communication and cloud computing; optical sensors for printers, mobility, life-style wearables and automotive applications. Demand for UV LED is picking up as countries begin testing generic UV light sterilization in places with high human traffic such as shopping malls and subways.
  •  Capacity utilization rates for many leading LED manufacturers with Asian production bases (Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc.) are still constrained, as these sites recover and are clearing order backlog from the pandemic shutdown. There is still capacity available if our preferred suppliers are qualified to quickly ease constraints from Osram, Vishay and legacy suppliers such as Broadcom, Japanese suppliers. Asia based, leading automotive LED maker, Samsung Electronics is aggressively trying to penetrate the European and US markets with better and lower cost solutions than existing automotive suppliers like Osram, Panasonic and Nichia.
  •  As much visibility should be given to the suppliers as possible especially for extended lead time products like couplers, to avoid any potential supply issues.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Optoelectronics

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LED

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • The Optocoupler market has been consolidating with low end couplers (photo transistors) dominated by Asia- based suppliers like Lite-on,  Everlight and CTMicro. Couplers’ #1 market leader, Broadcom, is still dominating the high-end, high-speed IC couplers market. Prominent Chinese indigenous (top 4) LED manufacturers MLS, Foshan Nationstar Inc., Honglitronics and Refond continue to gain share amidst pandemic driven shortages. Prominent automotive LED supplier Panasonic is exiting the market by selling the business to Nuvoton Technology Corp from Taiwan. AMS acquired Osram to become one of the leading sensor and lighting semiconductor companies. 

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Optoelectronics

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LED

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Prices for all SMT LEDs from Asian based suppliers are forecast to stabilize in Q3 2022. However, there will still be some price increases for circuit board indicators (CBI), light pipe and opto couplers due to  rising costs of raw material and substrates (driven by acute shortage in semiconductor supply base globally), as well as freight charges. Increased demand across all major market sectors, most notably in the automotive sector, has contributed to the supply crunch. Customers are strongly advised to work with us to qualify Jabil-preferred suppliers especially for sole source sockets to mitigate the impact from price increases. In China, pressure driven from higher labor costs is affecting price levels on labor-intensive parts, display and housing LED or through hole parts. As a result, our low-cost Asian suppliers have struggled to deliver competitive pricing. This is particularly prevalent on high volume products such as smart phones and white goods.

VOLATILE MEMORY – DRAM

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

S DRAM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR3, 4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR1, 2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1,2 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

MCP/HMC/POP

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • DDR4: Constraints 
  • DDR3: Constraints but with some available production options.
  • Legacy (SDRAM, DDR1,2): Stable  (Look to 2nd tier suppliers for support).

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

S DRAM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR3, 4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR1, 2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1,2 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

MCP/HMC/POP

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • Analysts predicted market stabilization in 1H 2022 with limited bit growth, however, with AI and 5G gradually rising uncertainty remains in the market and factories are still reporting a lack of capacity.
  • Demand is still exceeding production rates in Q3. Expect allocation/constraints from most suppliers.
  • Suppliers are reporting capacity in DDR3. Look for support from some suppliers.
  • The war in Ukraine is not likely to cause an impact on the supply of raw materials, however, material pricing is increasing.
  • PC and server demand continues to increase and smartphone demand is solid moving into Q3.
  • Suppliers remain cautious in capacity planning as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to affect demand visibility.  The Shanghai lockdown is still causing back-end and shipping delays across multiple memory commodities.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

S DRAM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR3, 4

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

LP DDR1, 2

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR4 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR3 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

DDR1,2 RDIMM/UDIMM/SODIMM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

MCP/HMC/POP

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

PRICING

 

  • DDR4: Some Increases
  • DDR3: Some Increases.
  • Legacy (SDRAM, DDR1,2): Some Increases.

VOLATILE MEMORY – SRAM

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Asynchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Synchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • Asynchronous:
    • Low Power: Stable
    • Fast SRAM: Stable
    • Slow SRAM: Stable
       
  • Synchronous:
    • Quad Data Rate: Stable

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Asynchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Synchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • Overall, SRAM TAM is stable.
  • A stable demand and supply base still exists in the marketplace today.
  • Balanced market conditions are expected to continue throughout the 2H ‘2022, expect lead times to stay extended due to increased orders on suppliers.
  • Covid issues are still causing issues with suppliers especially Shanghai lockdown.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Asynchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Synchronous

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Asynchronous: Stable.
  • Synchronous: Stable.

NON-VOLATILE MEMORY - NAND FLASH

Applies to NAND Flash derivative products such as Solid-State Drives, eMMC, Memory Cards and USB Drives.

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NAND (SLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (TLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (MLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (3D NAND)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Micro SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

CF Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

EMMC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Solid State Drives

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Client - PCIe/NVMe

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SAS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SATA

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFD - 2.0, 3.0

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Planar NAND: Increases. 
  • 3D NAND Flash: Increases.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NAND (SLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (TLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (MLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (3D NAND)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Micro SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

CF Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

EMMC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Solid State Drives

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Client - PCIe/NVMe

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SAS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SATA

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFD - 2.0, 3.0

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Contamination issues at the joint Western Digital/Kioxia NAND factory could impact up to 6.5 exabytes of flash memory. Expect a ripple effect across all manufactures especially those producing 3D NAND. Products will be allocated.
  • Expect 10% increase in NAND flash product and related products using NAND Flash. (eMMC and SSD’s). Several manufacturers have already announced the increase.
  • Controller chips are allocated causing delays and allocation issues at major suppliers of SSD’s, eMMC, Memory Cards and USB devices. 
  • The war in Ukraine is reportedly not likely to cause further impact to flash production or pricing, but customers need to be kept aware should impacts arise.
  • The Shanghai lockdown has caused delays in backend productions and shipments. Short term demand has increased as production in China and automotive markets are back online. Provide suppliers as much forecast and hard orders as possible to ensure supply.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NAND (SLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (TLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (MLC)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NAND (3D NAND)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Micro SD Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

CF Card

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q4'22

Q3'22

EMMC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Solid State Drives

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Client - PCIe/NVMe

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SAS

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

SATA

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

UFD - 2.0, 3.0

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Planar NAND: Increases.
  • 3D NAND Flash: Increases.

NON-VOLATILE MEMORY - NOR FLASH

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NOR (Parallel)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NOR (SPI)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Low-Mid Density NOR: Highly Constrained.
  • High-Density NOR: Some Constraints.

 

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NOR (Parallel)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NOR (SPI)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

​​​​

  • NOR Flash memory is anticipated to remain tight through 2022.
  • Rising popularity of true wireless Bluetooth earbuds increased demand for NOR Flash memory and this is expected to continue throughout CY2022. Coupled with 5G product introductions, this will make supply tight.
  • NOR Flash Foundry partners are also seeing increased demand from non-Memory products that yield higher margins and this will limit capacity expansion plans for NOR Flash.
  • The war in Ukraine is not likely to cause material shortages but customers need to be vigilant. 
  • Shanghai lockdowns have caused further delays in back-end/shipments. More ripple effect expected.

 

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

NOR (Parallel)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

NOR (SPI)

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Low-Mid Density NOR: Increases.
  • High-Density NOR: Increases.

NON-VOLATILE MEMORY – EEPROM

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

EEPROM

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q2'23

Q2'23

  • EEPROM: Stable.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

EEPROM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

 

  • EEPROM is a matured memory technology.
  • There is stable demand and a supply base that continues to support the marketplace today.
  • Balanced market conditions are expected to continue throughout 2022.
  • Make sure to monitor lead times and provide ample forecasts.
  • As major suppliers continue to extend lead times and have capacity constraints. Look to tier-2 suppliers for support.
  • Shanghai lockdowns have caused delays in back-end/shipments. 

 

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

EEPROM

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • EEPROM: Stable.

SENSOR

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Sensor

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Mems

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Temperature

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Pressure

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Image

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Optical

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Allocation

  • Lead times remain constrained due to robust demand with 52+ weeks of lead times and many products on allocation.
  • Upstream supply constraints for raw materials (connectors, semiconductors, lead frames, substrates, etc.)
  • Actively diversify and be multi-sourced. To tackle shortages, flexibility to accept various parameters such as form factors, sensitivity, and connector types is necessary.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Sensor

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Mems

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Temperature

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Pressure

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Image

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Optical

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Rapid Growth in Demand for Sensors

  • Automotive electrification, healthcare, 5G, and IoT applications continue to fuel strong demand for Sensing technologies.
  • Added capacity from suppliers will go to innovative products with higher ROI, resulting in older sensing technologies going end of life.
  • Severe constraints of silicon-based sensors as ongoing worldwide shortage of semiconductor components persist.
  • The war in Ukraine adds further mid-term uncertainties to the supply chain as noble gases and precious metals used in semiconductor manufacturing are sourced from the region.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Sensor

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q2'23

- Mems

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Temperature

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Pressure

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Image

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

- Optical

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Price Increasing

  • Constrained supply and rising lead times continue to put strong upward pressure on prices.
  • Older technology products will be pressured to compete with higher ROI products within the vendor’s product mix. 
  • Consecutive quarters of price increases issued by leading semiconductor manufacturers directly raise prices on silicon-based Sensors.

TIMING DEVICES

SUPPLY

i

supply

L/T Increase

Allocation

No Constraints


Demand and capacity specifics, change factors and forecasts

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Buffers & Distributors

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Generators & RTC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Sub-Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Timer

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Overall semiconductor demand is still very strong, especially in the automotive segment. Supply constraints persist across the whole supply chain, both in the front-end and back-end assembly.
  • Suppliers have extended lead times due to wafer shortages at Foundries, lead frames and back-end assembly capacity. Most are reporting very high book to bill ratios.
  • Based on the status of various foundries’ client orders, we expect the current tight supply of wafer capacity to persist until the 1H 2023. Foundries and subcons are reportedly sold out as global demand outstrips supply.
  • All products are currently in tight supply with current lead-times sitting between 46 weeks and 52 weeks with some devices as high as 78 weeks to 90 weeks. NCNR is a mostly implemented to ensure the actual demand is provided. No suppliers/customers are exempt from delivery and lead time problems.
  • Microchip, NXP and Renesas require NCNR backlog covering all 2023 through supply assurance programs.

MARKET DYNAMICS

i

market

Churn/ Consolidation

Exit Market

Stable


Commodity demand, supply & capacity, and the supplier landscape

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Buffers & Distributors

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Generators & RTC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Sub-Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Timer

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • Revenue growth stems from expected continuation of strong dynamics across all end markets. Prices are surging in the chip supply chain. With the continuation of robust demand, suppliers expect supply to be a challenge for the foreseeable future. The current front-end and back-end loading is very high with most bookings into 2023.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry, is considering building a semiconductor factory in Singapore to help address a global supply shortage. A final decision hasn’t been made yet and details of the plan are still under discussion, a major chip-making hub, might help fund the plant and negotiations are under way with the government’s Economic Development Board.
  • TSMC has set a capital expenditure budget of $40-$44 billion this year. The company is building a $12 billion chip factory in Arizona and expects to receive support from a $50 billion chip-manufacturing incentive plan that Congress is weighing up. TSMC is also building a new plant in Japan with financial help from the Japanese government and investment by Sony Group Corp.
  • TI is investing in internal 300-mm manufacturing, production from the new Sherman fabs are expected in 2025. The fabs will complement TI’s existing 300-mm fabs, which include DMOS6 (Dallas), RFAB1 and the soon-to-be-completed RFAB2 (both in Richardson, Texas), which is expected to start production later this year. Additionally, LFAB (Lehi, Utah) is expected to begin production in early 2023.

PRICE

i

price

Flat

Increase

Decrease


Pricing specifics, change factors, trends and forecast rationale

Q3'22

Q4'22

Q1'23

Q2'23

Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Buffers & Distributors

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Clock Generators & RTC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Sub-Timing IC

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

Timer

Q1'22

Q2'22

Q3'22

Q4'22

  • There is no change expected through the remainder of 2022 with growth again predicted in the forthcoming quarters - suppliers are still sending price increase notifications.
  • There is a significant cost increase on wafers, lead frames, substrates, assembly & test as well as logistics. With limited supply of wafer, most suppliers are raising component prices due to higher costs required to assure wafer supply. Suppliers are passing through the cost increases to ensure supply continuity. Many suppliers report strong book to bill ratios between 1.2 ~ 1.5:1  and their backlog coverage into the 1H 2023.

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