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Global Commodity Intelligence
Q2 2025 | APRIL - JUNE
Global Commodity Intelligence
Q2 2025 | APRIL - JUNE
HIGH END SEMICONDUCTOR COMMODITIES
MCU / MCP / CHIPSET / ASIC / PROG LOGIC
SUPPLY
- Bottlenecks persist for state-of-the-art nodes (<7nm), which are critical for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications. In contrast, mature nodes (>28nm), essential for automotive and industrial sectors, remain healthy.
- Overall, capacity utilization across semiconductor manufacturers remains below 70%, with limited demand visibility.
- The market continues to navigate complex dynamics driven by geopolitical shifts, evolving supply chains, and technological advancements:
- AI and Cloud-related applications remain in high demand.
- Automotive demand for ADAS and HPC solutions is increasing, with China leading EV-related growth, while other regions still experience soft demand.
- A modest recovery is observed in the personal consumer and industrial markets.
- The semiconductor industry remains cautiously optimistic for slight growth in the second half of 2025.
- Current Market Health by Segment
- Foundry: Healthy
- Substrate: Healthy
- Back-End: Healthy
MCU Overview:
Supply is healthy for most product lines, with slight lead time improvements for automotive products.
STMICROELECTRONICS
- Lead times remain flat at 15-17 weeks for mainstream MCUs (STM32F, G, L, U, MP series)
- High-performance MCUs (H5/H7) remain at 22 weeks
- Automotive portfolio (SPC series) is stable at 40 weeks
MICROCHIP:
- Lead times are healthy in a sub 6-10 weeks range for the majority of the products
- Microchip is requesting 20 weeks of order visibility to avoid hiccups due to their broad product mix
NXP:
- Stable at 13 weeks for LPC, MK, RT series MCU, and I.MX2, 5, 6 MPUs
- Stable at 16 weeks for I.MX8 series and 23 weeks for I.MX7
- Automotive series: S9/S9K/S32K/SPC5 are stable at 12-16 weeks, S32G improved to 18 weeks
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TI)
- Wireless (CC1xxx/CC2xxx/CC3xxx) are at 6-18 weeks, modules up to 20 weeks
- MSP430 and TM4C MCUs are in a 12-18 weeks range
- DSPs (TMS320) and Sitara MPUs (AMxxx) are at 18 weeks
INFINEON/CYPRESS
- CY8Cxx – former Cypres portfolio: 10 weeks
- Aurix TC2xx/TC3xx: 33 weeks, automotive remains stable
RENESAS
- Lead times for MCUs: 12–26 weeks
- New-generation automotive MPUs (RH850): 20–24 weeks.
SILICON LABS
- EFR32/EFM32 product families: 12–16 weeks.
SOC Overview
Supply Remains generally healthy across the market.
MARVELL
- Lead times: 26–28 weeks.
- The NCNR (Non-Cancelable, Non-Returnable) policy remains in place.
BROADCOM
- General lead times: 52 weeks
- Consumer products from the BVG Business Unit: 26 weeks
QUALCOMM
- Lead times are tight, ensure >32 weeks of backlog
INTEL
- Supply for EPG Products is healthy.
CPU Overview
- INTEL supply is healthy in general
FPGA Overview
Supply has remained stable over the past quarter and is generally healthy
AMD/XILINX
- Most products are in a 12-20 weeks lead time range, some UltraScale+ devices are up to 52 weeks
- Versal (7nm) is somewhat tight with lead times quoted at approximately 36 weeks
- AMD is requesting 52 weeks of visibility for order planning
INTEL
- Newer generation products: Lead times are 12–16 weeks
- Agilex 7 products: Lead times are 26 weeks
- Arria V and older generation products: Lead times are under 26 weeks
MICROCHIP
- Most products have lead times of 8–16 weeks
LATTICE
- Lead times are 16 weeks for most product lines
RF Semiconductors Overview
QORVO
- Lead times are stable, with most products under 20 weeks
SKYWORKS
- General lead times are 16 weeks
NXP
- Lead times range between 10–26 weeks
MINI-CIRCUITS
- Lead times for all products are 12 weeks or below
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Broad-range semiconductor suppliers are adjusting their strategies to navigate challenging market conditions while protecting profitability. Most manufacturers are reducing CapEx for FY2025, with some engaging in fab consolidations to optimize resources.
- Several key fab sales and consolidations have been announced:
- Infineon sold its 200mm FAB25 in Austin, Texas, to Skywater for $110 million, positioning Skywater as a key foundational node (>65nm) supplier in the U.S.
- NXP is consolidating its 200mm internal fabs and shifting production to foundries, including its JV with Vanguard (VSMC, a 300mm fab in Singapore), set to be fully operational by 2027.
- Microchip is reducing output at its Gresham and Colorado factories following the closure of its Tempe site and is implementing 2,000 job cuts (9% of its workforce) across the U.S. and the Philippines.
- STM and Infineon continue to invest heavily, allocating $2–2.3 billion, though 20% lower than in previous years, focusing on SiC technology.
- Meanwhile, NXP has expanded its portfolio through strategic acquisitions of TTTech, Aviva, and Kinara.
- The geopolitical landscape and government policies continue to influence semiconductor investments:
- Uncertainty remains around the U.S. CHIPS Act as the White House seeks to renegotiate certain deals.
- The European Commission approved €920M in funding under the European Chips Act to support Infineon’s Smart Power Fab in Dresden, part of a €5B investment, with operations expected to begin in 2026.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
|
Company |
Description |
Investment / Impact |
|
Infineon |
Sold 200mm FAB25 in Austin, Texas, to Skywater to strengthen U.S. foundational nodes (>65nm) |
$110M sale; enhances Skywater's position |
|
NXP |
Consolidating 200mm internal fabs, shifting production to foundries (VSMC in Singapore) |
300mm fab JV with Vanguard, full operation by 2027 |
|
Microchip |
Reducing output at Gresham & Colorado fabs, closing Tempe site, 2,000 job cuts (9%) |
Workforce reduction across the U.S. & Philippines |
|
STM & Infineon |
Investing in SiC technology, but CapEx cut by 20% compared to last year |
$2–2.3B investment in SiC technology |
|
NXP |
Acquired TTTech to expand software for Software-Defined Vehicles |
$625M acquisition |
|
NXP |
Acquired Aviva for high-speed automotive interfaces |
$325M acquisition |
|
NXP |
Acquired Kinara for AI NPUs & Edge AI solutions |
$255M acquisition |
|
Nvidia |
Launched ASIC division to address demand for customized AI solutions |
Competing with Broadcom & Marvell |
|
Skyworks |
Appointed Phil Brace as new CEO, previously led Sierra Wireless |
Optimized Sierra Wireless before its acquisition by Semtech |
|
U.S. CHIPS Act |
White House renegotiating semiconductor funding deals |
Potential impact on subsidies & agreements |
|
EU Chips Act |
Approved €920M funding for Infineon’s Smart Power Fab in Dresden, part of a €5B investment |
Factory operational by 2026 |
PRICE
- TSMC is expected to increase pricing for state-of-the-art nodes below 7nm, driven by strong demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.
- Pricing for mainstream process nodes is expected to remain stable. However, manufacturers may adopt strategies similar to AMD, Altera, and Lattice, where cost improvements are achieved at the system level through new designs that introduce more integrated solutions.
- Suppliers continue to shift focus away from legacy devices, leading to price increases and accelerated end-of-life (EOL) cycles.
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