• Stable lead times for most common gauges.

• The decline of iron ore pricing appears short-lived as the Chinese government cracks down on speculative trading. This has led to many market analysts forecasting a rise in ore prices in the coming months.

• Iron ore pricing was US$132 per metric ton late February 2022. 

 

• No change in lead times for most common aluminum and copper types.

• Supply is stable for aluminum and copper.
• Market uncertainty looms as the Russian invasion of Ukraine intensifies.
• The other concern is energy prices. Europe continues to grapple with an energy crisis that pushed natural gas prices nearly five times higher than where they stood just one year ago. 
• Numerous aluminum smelters have already shuttered, or curtailed production as soaring energy prices eroded profitability. More could follow. Between both China and Europe, global capacity cutbacks have reached nearly 4 million tons.
• The continued geopolitical worries have raised the possibility of new sanctions on trade with major Russian metals producers. This could further squeeze the already tight aluminum and copper supply markets.

• Copper pricing was $4.53/lb late February 2022.
• Aluminum pricing was $1.56/lb late February 2022.

 

• WTI price is USD108.36 per barrel as of early March 2022.

• In North America, general purpose PC prices are stable and are projected to remain at 194-195 cpp through Q2 2022. Polycarbonate seems to be in a balanced position in EU with a moderate downwards price trend. The PC prices in NEA are projected to be slightly down in Q2’22.
• Flame retarded and highly pigmented compound prices could continue rising along with the cost of these additives as we remain in the midst of a worldwide shortage.

 

• In North America, supply is tight due to a combination of constrained feedstocks and overdue scheduled maintenance.
• In EU, ABS prices are expected to rise as the market responds to the unprecedented surge of energy prices. The Asian ABS market has entered a different level of uncertainty as up to 2 million tons of new capacity could be added in mainland China next year.
• As a result, the Asian ABS market will be in oversupply and will be dependent on voluntary production cuts or shutdowns by existing facilities.

• Prices remained elevated through 2021 and will continue into 2022. One producer (Dupont) has lifted their force majeure status on November 12, 2021.

• Average prices of copolymers and homopolymers continues with an upward trend globally.
• Looking at the balance of 2022, it is unlikely that we will see any new capacity globally.

• In North America, higher energy and feedstock cost is putting upward pressure on PP pricing. In addition, the demand is strong and expected to remain solid.
• In EU, PP prices largely rolled over, and supply is generally balanced. Copolymer supply eased despite force majeure from Total Energies.
• In Asia, PP prices are expected to increase with higher post Lunar new year demand.

Resins Price Forecast - North America 

 

Resins Price Forecast - Western Europe

Resins Price Forecast - Asia Pacific 

 

Polycarbonate

ABS

 

 

• No material constraints are foreseen. However, we need to closely follow the situation in Europe.
• Market contacts reported high demand for containerboard. Corrugated boxes and sheets demand remains strong this year.  Sources also cited that transportation and labor issues remain ultimately impacting lead times.

 

• North American Lumber: New increases on lumber is expected (7%-10%) because of sawmills focusing on producing material with higher profit. Furniture and construction added unforecasted demand.
• Transport, labor issues remain. Transportation and labor problems continue to slow the packaging business. We will monitor closely based on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Continued rising labor costs, increased fuel costs and industry wide paper increases.
• Increases are attributed to tight supply and higher demand; allocations continue to rule the markets.
• Transportation, energy, and labor costs as the main drivers for the March price increase announcements.

• Small price increases are expected as we enter Q2 but with mixed signals in the market in terms of percentage.
  • North America’s two largest corrugated box producers – IP and WestRock also have plans to increase their box and sheet prices in March. It will be the fourth box price increase in 18 months. Expected increment is 14% on boxes and 16% in sheets, however, market is not following yet.
  • Based on RISI (Global Index for Packaging material) the expected increment for corrugated materials would be around 6%-8%  in NA, but nothing official has been announced yet.
  • Other suppliers are communicating increments in the range of 8%-14% during March

 

 

LDPE Forecast Demonstrating a Downtrend

• China implemented environmental controls on plastic free.

 

Paper Forecast Demonstrating an Uptrend

• Wastepaper trends almost align with paper, signs for uptrend.
• Suppliers are grabbing available inventory due to COVID-19 panic.
• Mid-year climbing is now the normal practice.
• Currently, China is in a low-demand situation but showing signs of recovery.

 

• The next quarter looks challenging for the supply of solder. The increases in the base metals used for the principal alloys are a clear reflection of the caution in the market due to the different threats affecting the world.
• The recovery of the production of principal metals after covid, has been below the needs and demand of the final products. The major mines of tin are in the APAC area, principally in Myanmar, Indonesia and China. This increases the offer/demand in favor of the producers and the Asia market. However, the vulnerability of these countries due to Covid and environmental restrictions has seriously affected the supply of these metals.
• Solder suppliers are looking for buys in advance and are increasing the lead times on the top alloys to their buyers.
• Based on this, we have a medium risk to supply for which the best recommendations are to be in constant communication with the solder suppliers, track the metals market daily and develop different sources that could help should there be any disruptions in the supply chain.

• The EV industry is growing fast and requires the use of copper due to its conductive capabilities. Also, tin has proven to improve the performance of the acid lead batteries.
• SAC 305 continues to be the most commonly used alloy in the market.
• SN100 is increasing its coverage being a cost effective no silver alloy with similar results.
• The industry is recovering as well from the semiconductor shortages; this will affect the demand for solder and the associated metals.
• Tin has increased the price of the alloys by almost 40%.
• A hedge strategy is key to maintain the price fluctuation. However, due to the current geopolitical and market conditions, strategy should be conservative with hedges for maximum 2 months of consumption.
• Strong partnerships with key suppliers remains a good strategy to face market challenge and price fluctuations. Suppliers should have a good structure to execute the hedges.
• Inventory of tin is limited so suppliers with direct and good relationships with the mines are key to mitigate the risk of shortages on this metal.
• The situation in Ukraine and the potential impact could significantly affect the price of metals.

The price for solder products is highly driven by non-ferrous and precious metals as 90-100% of solder products could be attributed to these commodities.

Silver

• Silver has found a point of stabilization; however, this metal continues to be subject to and affected by the general market conditions and speculation. Inflation, instability in the main countries and geopolitical matters could affect it seriously and break the bubble of stabilization.
• The price of silver for the last quarter has been between $730-$760 USD/Kg in an upward trend. Below you can see the trend of silver after it reach their historical high prices of $944 USD/Kg in 2020 due to Covid.
• This metal regularly following gold which changes based on the global financial conditions. Since these are high value metals, they are commonly looked at and transitioned as a safe reserve when the value of the currencies are affected by macroeconomic conditions.

The price for solder products is highly driven by non-ferrous and precious metals as 90-100% of solder products could be attributed to these commodities.

Silver

• Silver has found a point of stabilization; however, this metal continues to be subject to and affected by the general market conditions and speculation. Inflation, instability in the main countries and geopolitical matters could affect it seriously and break the bubble of stabilization.
• The price of silver for the last quarter has been between $730-$760 USD/Kg in an upward trend. Below you can see the trend of silver after it reach their historical high prices of $944 USD/Kg in 2020 due to Covid.
• This metal regularly following gold which changes based on the global financial conditions. Since these are high value metals, they are commonly looked at and transitioned as a safe reserve when the value of the currencies are affected by macroeconomic conditions.

 

Source: LME.com chart to show silver trend since start of Covid-19 until today

 

Copper

• Prices are increasing from $9 to $10 per USD/Kg. This metal price has been impacted due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the US, among other countries. Similarly, silver could be affected if the global conditions change drastically.

 

Source: LME Chart that illustrates the last three months of copper price 

 

Tin

• The price of tin has increased by over 250% in two years and that trend is expected to continue through 2022. Most of the tin mines are located in APAC area, principally in Myanmar, Indonesia, China and Perú. The whole world depends on the stability of these countries for tin price trends which are subject to high risk due to health and environmental issues.

 

Source: https://abi.beroelive.ai/

 

In 2020, some of these producers were forced to reduce their tin production. The recovery of demand due to the pandemic has been slow. As we can see in the table below, the top producer’s production rebounded in 2021.

 

Source: https://www.internationaltin.org/

• Tin has been the highest demand nonferrous metal in the last year. Usage in lithium batteries has increased the demand and consumption as the industry is poised to support the production of more electrical vehicles.
• Tin has many industry applications. Its chemical properties support solderability since it is a malleable metal and resistant to corrosion. Therefore, it is also very useful for the chemicals and plating industries.

 

Source: https://abi.beroelive.ai/

We do not expect tin to go back to the $20 USD/KG. Instead, SMM and LME predictions are to continue in an upward trend and settle between $40 to 50$ USD/KG.

 

Source: https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Tin#Price+graphs