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Jabil's Global Commodity Intelligence Archive
Global Commodity Intelligence
Q1 2025 | JANUARY - MARCH
Jabil's Global Commodity Intelligence Archive
Global Commodity Intelligence
Q1 2025 | JANUARY - MARCH
HIGH END SEMICONDUCTOR COMMODITIES
MCU / MCP / CHIPSET / ASIC / PROG LOGIC
SUPPLY
- Supply remains healthy, though market demand outside of AI/Cloud, military, and certain automotive applications continues to be slow.
- Capacity utilization for broad range manufacturers is at low levels, averaging around 70% for most internal factories.
- Regionally, market performance varies: China is showing strength, Europe struggles with low industrial and automotive demand, and business in America remains steady.
- Geopolitical tensions could potentially disrupt the market further in the upcoming quarters.
- Most manufacturers report limited demand visibility and do not anticipate a recovery for the broader base market until the second half of 2025.
- Stability Index:
- Foundry: Healthy
- Substrate: Healthy
- Back-End: Healthy
MCU Overview:
Supply is healthy for most product lines, with slight lead time improvements for automotive products.
STMICROELECTRONICS
- Mainstream MCU lead times (STM32F, G, L, U, MP series): Reduced to 15 weeks.
- High-performance MCU lead times (H5/H7 series): Reduced to 22 weeks.
- Automotive portfolio (SPC series): Lead times improved from 52 weeks to 40 weeks.
MICROCHIP:
- Lead times are healthy, ranging from 8–10 weeks for most products.
- Microchip requests 20 weeks of visibility to mitigate unforeseen gaps due to their broad product mix.
NXP:
- Lead times for LPC, RT, I.MX2/5/6 series are stable at 13 weeks; I.MX8 at 16 weeks; I.MX7 at 23 weeks.
- Kinetis (MK series) from GF90nm: Reduced to 13 weeks.
- Automotive series (S9/S9K/S32K/SPC5): Stable at 12–18 weeks, while S32G remains at 26 weeks.
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TI)
- Healthy lead times for most products.
- Wireless (CC1xxx/CC2xxx/CC3xxx): 6–12 weeks, modules up to 20 weeks.
- MSP430 and TM4C MCUs: 12–18 weeks.
- DSPs (TMS320) and Sitara MPUs (AMxxx): 18 weeks.
INFINEON/CYPRESS
- CY8Cxx (former Cypress portfolio): 10–16 weeks
- Aurix TC2xx/TC3xx (automotive): 26 weeks, remains stable
RENESAS
- Lead times for MCUs: 12–26 weeks
- New-generation automotive MPUs (RH850): 20–24 weeks.
SILICON LABS
- EFR32/EFM32 product families: 12–16 weeks.
SOC Overview
Supply Remains generally healthy across the market
MARVELL
- Lead times: 26–34 weeks.
- NCNR (Non-Cancelable, Non-Returnable) policy remains in place.
BROADCOM
- General lead times: 52 weeks
- Consumer products from the BVG Business Unit: 26 weeks
QUALCOMM
- Lead times: Stable at approximately 35 weeks
INTEL
- Supply for EPG (Enterprise and Government Products) is healthy.
CPU Overview
- INTEL supply is healthy in general
FPGA Overview
Supply has remained stable over the past quarter and is generally healthy
AMD/XILINX
- Most products have lead times of 12–30 weeks
- Ultrascale+ devices: Lead times are at 52 weeks
- Xilinx is requesting 52 weeks of visibility for order planning
INTEL
- Newer generation products: Lead times are 12–16 weeks
- Agilex 7 products: 26 weeks; AGI041-based products have extended lead times of 32 weeks due to a surge in demand, with an expected improvement to 16 weeks in H1 2025.
- Arria V and older generation products: Lead times are under 26 weeks
MICROCHIP
- Most products have lead times of 8–16 weeks
LATTICE
- Lead times are 16 weeks for most product lines
RF Semiconductors Overview
QORVO
- Lead times are stable, with most products under 20 weeks
SKYWORKS
- General lead times are 16 weeks
NXP
- Lead times range between 16–26 weeks
MINI-CIRCUITS
- Lead times for all products are 12 weeks or below
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Suppliers are adopting varied strategies to navigate challenging market conditions and protect profitability.
- Some suppliers continue to invest in R&D and Capex initiatives to drive innovation and future growth.
- Others are taking a more cautious approach, slowing down investments in response to market uncertainties.
- Major investments are primarily focused on new foundries for state-of-the-art process technologies.
- The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported Q3 global semiconductor sales of $166 billion, a 23.2% Y/Y and 10.7% Q/Q increase. Regional Y/Y sales growth:
|
Region |
Share |
|
Americas |
+46.3% |
|
China |
+22.9% |
|
Asia Pacific/All Other |
+18.4% |
|
Japan |
+7.7% |
|
Europe |
-8.2% |
- Growth in AI demand offsets challenges in other markets, driving the high-end semiconductor market.
REGIONAL VARIANTS
|
Region |
Development |
|
US and Europe |
US and European semiconductor leaders face increased competition from China's semiconductor industry, which has invested hundreds of billions of yuan in self-sufficiency. |
|
China |
Chinese companies, such as Unisoc, Hisilicon, and Espressif, are deploying more local MCU and SoC solutions, particularly for automotive safety microcontrollers, ADAS, and Cockpit SoCs, supported by SMIC's foundry capabilities. |
|
Japan |
Japan unveiled a $65 billion plan to boost its chip and AI industries. |
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
|
Company |
Development |
|
TSMC |
TSMC secured $6.6 billion in funding plus up to $5 billion in loans through the CHIPS Act to support its $65 billion investment in new foundries in Phoenix. |
|
Global Foundries Inc |
Global Foundries received $1.5 billion from CHIPS Act funds for the expansion of its Malta, NY fab and modernization of its Vermont foundry, along with $550 million from the New York Green State CHIPS program, supporting a $13 billion investment over the next 10 years. |
|
Intel |
Intel was awarded up to $7.865 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS Incentives Program, the award will directly support Intel’s expected U.S. investment of nearly $90 billion by the end of the decade. This will require Intel to maintain a controlling stake in the foundry business. On the flip side, Intel halted some of its planned capex investments. The German government might reallocate the €10 billion planned subsidy due to the postponement of the Magdeburg fab to 2029. |
|
Intel announced that CEO Pat Gelsinger retired from the company and has stepped down from the board of directors, effective Dec. 1, 2024. David Zinsner and Michelle (MJ) Johnston Holthaus, as interim co-chief executive officers while the board of directors searches for a new CEO. |
|
Microchip and Wolfspeed |
Microchip and Wolfspeed replaced their CEOs following significant revenue declines and margin pressures. Steve Sanghi is the interim CEO for Microchip, while Thomas Werner temporarily replaces Gregg Lowe at Wolfspeed. |
|
Microchip Technology plans to shut down the 8” Fab 2 factory in Tempe by the September 2025 quarter. Microchip expects annual cash saving of approximately 90M$ and will transfer business to their newer Oregon and Colorado facilities. |
Trendforce predicts a shift in AI server demand from high-volume, off-the-shelf solutions (e.g., Nvidia and AMD) to custom ASICs, emphasizing differentiation and cost efficiency. Marvell and Broadcom could benefit from this shift, but the industry relies heavily on process developments and capacity expansions by foundries like TSMC. The below graph shows an overview of TSMC’s quarterly growth in HPC revenue.
PRICE
- After Altera announced price adjustments for its broad portfolio in early Q4, AMD followed with price increases of 10%-20% for complex FPGAs on 16nm–90nm nodes, effective for shipments starting December 14th.
- TSMC is expected to increase pricing for state-of-the-art nodes below 7nm.
- Pricing for products built on mainstream process nodes is expected to remain stable, but manufacturers may deploy strategies similar to AMD and Altera.
- System-level price improvements can be achieved by introducing new designs with more integrated solutions.
- Suppliers are increasingly defocusing on legacy devices by implementing price increases and accelerating end-of-life (EOL) timelines.
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